The population of the UK is on course to overtake that of France for the first time in recorded history after net migration hit more than 600,000.
The gap in population between the two countries has been closing for decades, but France remains the second-largest country that is wholly within Europe.
In mid-2021, the last figure for which comparable figures were available, the UK had about 700,000 fewer residents than France. Britain’s net migration was 606,000 last year, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Thursday, while France’s statistical agency estimates its net migration at 161,000.
The last comparable figures, from mid 2021, showed the UK had a total population of 67,026,292, and France 67,710,000. Germany had a population of 83,129,285 in mid-2021.
The UK’s population is already larger than that of “metropolitan France” – the part of the country located within Europe. However, France has more people when counting its overseas regions, such as Guadeloupe and French Guiana, which have the same legal status as the rest of the country.
Both the UK and France have similar levels of “natural change”, the number of births minus the number of deaths. The figures suggest that within two years, the UK’s population will be larger than France’s if migration levels remain roughly stable.
Maxwell Marlow of the free-market Adam Smith Institute told i: “Today’s record immigration stats puts the UK on track to overtake France’s population by 2025. It should be noted that we have elevated incoming migration owing to our leading support for Hong Kongers and Ukrainian refugees, as well as very high numbers of students because of our flagship education sector.”
Jonathan Portes, a former top civil servant and senior fellow at the UK In A Changing Europe think-tank, added: “The UK, like almost all European countries, has fertility well below replacement levels, but migration means that unlike lots of European countries we don’t have a falling population.
“On the whole, my view is that is a good thing in the sense that rising population is a problem, but it’s not as big a problem as falling population. Rising population is a problem as you have congestion, where do you build the houses, we are more dense, and that’s bad.
“But falling population is a much worse problem where you get deserted villages, an older population with fewer workers, places where there are no or few kids which does not feel like a dynamic, vibrant country.”
Turkey and Russia, which have larger populations than the UK, France or Germany, are not included in the comparison as they are not wholly in Europe.
The record high for the year 2022 has forced Rishi Sunak to all but ditch the Conservative 2019 manifesto pledge to bring down overall numbers of immigration.
The rise was driven by 1.2 million immigrants, the majority (925,000) of whom were non-EU nationals who mainly arrived for work, study and humanitarian reasons, the ONS estimate showed.
People arriving on study visas were the largest group of immigrants, with 361,000 students arriving after the reintroduction of a two-year post-study work visa and a Government-sponsored strategy to boost numbers, compared to 235,000 workers.
The number of family members of foreign students arriving in the UK more than doubled to 85,000, according to the ONS.
More up-to-date Home Office figures suggesting the number had increased even further to 149,400 in the year ending March 2023, suggesting the Government’s crackdown announced last week would have some impact, if not a decisive one.
The large increase in the number of work visas coming to the UK was largely driven by the recruitment of health and care, and seasonal agricultural workers to cover labour shortages, Home Office statistics showed.
The estimates also included about 172,000 people who came to the UK on largely temporary refugee resettlement schemes, for example from Ukraine, Hong Kong and Afghanistan, as well as, for the first time, 76,000 applicants for asylum.
Jay Lindop, director of the centre for international migration at the ONS, said a series of “unprecedented world events throughout 2022”, together with the lifting of restrictions following the Covid-19 pandemic, led to record levels of international immigration to the UK.
The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford suggested the numbers had “peaked”.
Rishi Sunak vowed to bring down the number from the level he inherited when he took office last year, when net migration was estimated at 504,000.
The Prime Minister told ITV’s This Morning: “Numbers are too high, it’s as simple as that. And I want to bring them down.”
Separate figures published yesterday by the Home Office showed the backlog of asylum cases in the UK has hit a new record high, with a total of 172,758 people waiting for an initial decision on an asylum application in the UK at the end of March 2023, despite Mr Sunak’s pledge to bring down the backlog.
Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said: “The Conservatives’ chaotic approach means that work visas are up 119 per cent, net migration is more than twice the level ministers were aiming for, and the asylum backlog is at a record high despite Rishi Sunak promising to clear it this year.”