The Conservatives are unlikely to see an immediate boost in the polls despite the lower than expected fall in inflation, pollsters have said.
This week’s figures showing inflation at 3.9 per cent raised the prospect of tax cuts and cheaper mortgage costs next year.
Rishi Sunak had already met his target to halve inflation by the end of 2023 a month early, but the latest figure – a significant drop from 10.7 per cent at the start of the year – was hailed by the Prime Minister as evidence that he is charting the right course on the economy.
But polling experts said it could take several months for voters to feel better off, given prices have been high for two years and interest rates are still at 5.25 per cent.
While the Tories traditionally do better than Labour on the economy in the polls, their reputation was battered by Liz Truss and Kwazi Kwarteng’s mini-Budget last year and this will take more than one major economic development to turn that around, experts said.
Chris Hopkins, director of Savanta, said: “Polling suggests voters don’t really credit the government with the drop in inflation, and that’s the key point really – the economy can improve, inflation can reduce, but a) people have to feel the benefit (they don’t) and b) they have to credit the government with that benefit (they don’t as yet).
“There needs to be way more good economic news before the public start rewarding the government in the polls, if they ever do.”
Conservative pollster Lord Hayward said there was “no question” the fall in inflation would have an impact in the polls, adding that “it is good news on the economy after months and years of inflation and the cost of living being the number one issue for the public at large”.
But he added: “It will have an impact but it will take time and it always depends on what other issues there are around.
“There is no question that it will have an effect, but it won’t be a marked effect. It will probably impact on Rishi’s ratings rather than the Conservative Party ratings first because personal ratings are more fluid and can go up and down more quickly.
“The Tory party does historically better on the economy. But it hasn’t in recent months and therefore this will help get its reputation back. It won’t end the problem by itself, but it helps get it back.”