With apologies to every Manchester City supporter, the Premier League becomes a little more fun when they stutter and stammer. This isn’t evidence of a media conspiracy, simply a desire for effective competition. Our journey to football obsession was broadly defined by three things: FA Cup finals, major international tournaments and title races. City have won five of the last six titles. Variation is sexy. Sorry.
Also true: there is something deeply fascinating about about Manchester City wobbling because, at every other time, they look gloriously unstoppable. This season, Pep Guardiola seemed to have created a new age of Manchester City, the Retain Our Crowns XI who played with deliberate control and energy saving. City won their first six league games of the season through the concession of three goals and trailed for 10 minutes in total.
And then, chaos. Manchester City have won three of their last eight league matches. They have conceded 10 goals in their last four in all competitions, their worst defensive spell since Guardiola’s first season, when Richard Keys advised him to hire Sam Allardyce and was being serious. On Sunday, Erling Haaland screamed in Simon Hooper’s face like an over-acting Hollywood extra and then flounced off, blonde hair flowing like one of America’s Next Top Models storming off the set. None of this is normal.
Most impressive is the variety contained within these backward steps. City lost to Wolves in “classic City” fashion, conceding two goals from one shot on target. Then they were bizarrely circumspect against Arsenal, having fewer than five shots for the first time in basically forever. Then came the chaos of Chelsea and Tottenham, It’s A Knockout spectacles of bangs and whistles and upturned expectations.
The broad issue is the absence of key players in a squad that is lighter on bodies than you might expect for a steamrolling monster machine.
City lost both league games without Rodri because nobody can replace what he does. They are badly missing their all-purpose defenso-midfielder John Stones – he’s started four games and City have won them all, scoring 14 goals and conceding twice.
And then there’s the knock-on impact of those absentees. Stones missing from midfield means Manuel Akanji there, but he was excellent on the left of the back three last season.
During those first six wins, City played the same back three combination in four of them. They have had seven different combinations in their last eight league games and that has to cause uncertainty even to this team.
Further forward, City are noticeably different to last season. Jeremy Doku’s accelerated acclimatisation makes him an auto-pick, but his preference is for one-on-one duels, dashes and dances forward and bursts into space; these are not Guardiola’s usual bag.
Kevin De Bruyne would add the majestic control to complement that chaos, and you suspect that the strikers will welcome him back. Haaland has missed presentable chances in each of the three draws. Julian Alvarez has one goal or assist in his last five. This is all great fun for City’s title peers.
But before we all get too giddy for title shootouts in the spring, there is another, persuasive explanation: nothing is wrong at all. Things are simply falling in a mildly frustrating manner, as sometimes they tend to do. Dependable players are making rare mistakes at silly times. Attackers are missing chances that they almost always score. Every decent chance that you cede somehow ends up as a goal.
Manchester City had more than five times the xG of Tottenham on Sunday, double Liverpool’s in the 1-1 draw and higher than Arsenal and Wolves in both of those defeats. Those statistics are both meaningless in the specific moment – “I never celebrated an expected goal, Jeff” – but offer solace to a manager who says that his team is playing very well and is absolutely right.
Expecting anything else makes you guilty of amnesia or partisan idealism. A year ago exactly, Manchester City were five points behind Arsenal and they have only dropped two more points this season than then. In every year since 2018, City have failed to be top of the Premier League after 14 matches and have won the league three times in four of them.
In each of the last five seasons they have produced a streak of at least 12 consecutive wins and most of them come after the turn of the year. After Aston Villa on Wednesday, Manchester City face one team currently in the top nine before mid-March.
Why wouldn’t this be the most likely cause of events? De Bruyne will be back. Stones will be back. Jack Grealish will be fully fit and so will Matheus Nunes. The gremlins will have been forced out of the system, they won’t be as forgiving and their opponents won’t be as prolific. The time you spend wondering if Manchester City are suddenly fallible beyond your dreams is time wasted.