Delegates at the COP28 climate talks in Dubai have agreed to a deal that would push nations to “transition away” from fossil fuels for the first time.
Following two weeks of challenging negotiations, a final version of the agreement was published on Wednesday.
The measures around fossil fuels, which have been supported by representatives from nearly 200 countries, are designed to avert the worst of climate change.
The language in the agreement, which is not legally binding, was strengthened after a widespread backlash to a draft which suggested that countries “could” reduce fossil fuels. Critics argued it left too many loopholes.
However, despite the new deal, many countries, particularly small island states severely threatened by rising seas, still believe too many holes remain.
COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber described the agreement as “historic” but added that its true success would be in its implementation.
“We are what we do, not what we say,” he told the summit. “We must take the steps necessary to turn this agreement into tangible actions.”
More than 100 countries had fought hard for strong language in the COP28 agreement to “phase out” oil, gas and coal use, but they came up against powerful opposition from the Saudi Arabia-led oil producer group Opec.
The organisation – whose members control nearly 80 per cent of the world’s proven oil reserves and about a third of global daily oil production – had argued that nations can collectively slash emissions without sidelining specific fuels.
That negotiations pushed the summit a full day into overtime on Wednesday.
What happens next after climate deal?
The deal calls for nations to contribute to a number of efforts in response to the need for “deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions”.
It explicitly calls on countries to engage in the “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science”.
It also calls for:
- A tripling of renewable energy capacity globally by 2030;
- A doubling of the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030;
- Acceleration of efforts to “phase down” unabated coal power;
- Development of a list of “zero- and low-emission technologies” including renewables, nuclear power, low-carbon hydrogen production, and carbon capture.
Now the deal has been agreed, countries are responsible for delivering on the agreements through national policies and investments.
However some leading environmental organisations have said the agreement to transition away from fossil fuels, while significant, is lacking.
What do charities and campaigners think?
Manuel Pulgar-Vidal of the WWF conservation group said: “The Earth is down but not out, as countries agree to transition away from fossil fuels, but fall short of consensus on the full phase-out of coal, oil and gas at COP28.
“Nevertheless, a decision to transition away from fossil fuels is a significant moment. After three decades of UN climate negotiations, countries have at last shifted the focus to the polluting fossil fuels driving the climate crisis.
“This outcome must signal the beginning of the end for the fossil fuel era.”
Joab Okanda, of global poverty charity Christian Aid, said: “We may not have driven the nail into the coffin here at COP28 but the end is coming for dirty energy.
“But there is a gaping hole on finance to actually fund the transition from dirty to clean energy in developing countries. Without that, we risk the global shift being much slower.
“We now need to see rich countries following up their warm words about wanting a fossil fuel phase-out with actions to actually bring it about and end their use of coal, oil and gas by the end of this decade.”
What have scientists said?
Scientists generally welcomed the deal although they questioned whether it went far enough, given the enormity of the task to limit global warming to 1.5°C, or thereabouts. And they were concerned about whether the necessary action would be taken to prevent the worst of climate change.
“The COP28 UAE consensus to transition away from fossil fuels is a significant step to save lives worldwide,” said Professor Alan Dangour, Director of Climate and Health at Wellcome.
“But for this agreement to truly be seen as a historic turning point, there is work to do. Inaction will cost millions of lives.”
Caterina Brandmayr, Director of Policy and Translation at the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London, said: “After years of negotiations, which repeatedly failed to address the major driver of climate change, COP28 marks an important inflection point in global efforts to move away from fossil fuels.
“While there remain loopholes and the final agreement falls short on ambition, the direction of travel is clear. Countries now have to follow through to bring about real world action.”
Kevin Anderson, Professor of Energy and Climate Change, at the University of Manchester, struck a less positive note.
“No doubt there will be lots of cheer and back-slapping among many pontificators and even some climate ‘experts’, but the physics will not care.
“As the new agreement locks in high levels of emissions for years to come, so the temperature will continue to rise.
“To add a bit of science and maths to this harsh assessment, we have between five and eight years of current emissions before we blow through the carbon budget for just a flip-of-a-coin chance of not exceeding 1.5°C.