On the face of it, not an awful lot has changed at Arsenal over the past 12 months. The manager is the same, most of the players are the same and their position in the Premier League table as Christmas approaches is the same as it was this time last year. After 17 games they are perched on top of the tree.
Look closer, though, and it is clear that an evolution is taking place at The Emirates. 2023 began with Arsenal immersed in a title race that nobody had envisaged them being a part of and ends with many touting them as this season’s champions-elect.
When before there was hope, now there is expectation. Arsenal seem more mature and streetwise now, less naive and prone to avoidable lapses.
Back in May they were perceived to have exceeded expectations despite relinquishing first place in the final few weeks; nobody will be patting them on the head if they squander an eight-point lead again.
A key aspect that has underpinned Arsenal’s growth is pragmatism. Last season’s challengers were thrilling to watch, a modern-day reboot of Arsene Wenger’s most beguiling teams, but they were too open, too often, particularly when they needed to be compact and resolute.
Arsenal conceded 18 goals in their final 11 league games of 2022-23, including two or more in a game five times.
That accounted for over 40 per cent of their goals against total for the entire season. In contrast, Manchester City conceded eight over the same period and didn’t let in two or more in a game once. Title winners are built on strong foundations.
Run the tape on and the Gunners have the joint-best defensive record in the Premier League so far this campaign, along with Saturday’s opponents Liverpool, with just 15 goals against.
Although the raw numbers are the same, Arsenal, for the most part, have generally looked more solid than Liverpool have, as backed up by the underlying data.
Arsenal have massively underperformed compared to their xGa (expected goals against) and Liverpool have massively outperformed theirs. Essentially, it boils down to this: Alisson has saved far more shots than he would be expected to concede and David Raya and Aaron Ramsdale have not.
While Raya’s shot-stopping will need to improve, Arteta will be heartened by the fact that his team are limiting their opponents to low-quality chances and preventing them from having many attempts at all. The Gunners have faced the fewest shots on target with 39, 11 fewer than Manchester City who are next in the charts. Liverpool have faced 63.
Declan Rice is Arteta’s human Polyfilla, filling holes before they’ve even appeared, but the whole team has bought into this new way. Mikel Arteta’s grand plan to make his team more difficult to score against is working and should have worked even more.
That isn’t to say that Arteta has veered from Pep Guardiola disciple to Jose Mourinho fanboy in the space of six months. Arsenal have scored as many goals (35) as Ange Postecoglou’s great entertainers down the road and against Brighton they offered an ominous glimpse of how dangerous they can be when it all clicks, creating chances at will and keeping their opponents comfortably at arm’s length.
It remains to be seen if Arsenal can maintain their defensive resilience across an entire season, but another mark of their progress is their newfound habit of winning matches that they have historically struggled in.
In September, Arsenal beat Everton at Goodison Park for the first time since October 2017, a run that spanned four defeats and a draw. In October, Arsenal triumphed over Manchester City in the league for the first time since December 2015 to end a 16-game winless drought and a seven-game losing streak at the Emirates. And last weekend, they got the better of Brighton after losing three in a row against them at home.
They have lost twice, away to Newcastle and Aston Villa, but both games were tight encounters that could have yielded more. Anthony Gordon’s match-winner at St James’ Park is perhaps the most contentious moment of the season so far, while Kai Havertz’s disallowed goal for a handball at Villa Park was unfortunate, if legitimate by the rulebook.
Earning a rare three points at Anfield would be an even greater statement and one that would cement Arsenal’s status as this season’s front-runners, rather than mere contenders, for the title.
They last won there in September 2012 when Santi Cazorla and Lukas Podolski scored the goals, Abou Diaby patrolled the midfield like a prime Patrick Vieira and Arteta sat in front of the back four rather than hopped around the technical area.
In the 10 league meetings since, Liverpool have routinely dished out beatings to Arsenal, recording wins of 5-1, 4-0 and 3-1 on multiple occasions. Chastening as those experiences were, the 2-2 draw in April was perhaps the most galling of all, considering Arsenal raced into a 2-0 lead by the half-hour mark.
There are a myriad of what if questions that can be asked of Arsenal’s late season collapse, but arguably the biggest two are these: What if William Saliba had stayed fit? And what if they had just held on at Anfield?
Arsenal had won seven on the spin before heading to Merseyside but then proceeded to go four games without a victory, drawing with West Ham and Southampton before losing to Manchester City.
The opportunity to claim a significant psychological boost was missed and replaced with a tidal wave of self-doubt. All momentum surrendered the moment Roberto Firmino looped a header over the goal line.
There is sufficient evidence that this team is not the same old Arsenal, who wilt under pressure and flourish when there is none.
Seven of their dozen league wins have come by a single goal. They have scored vital goals late on time and again: in the 96th and 101st minutes against Manchester United, the 86th minute against Manchester City, the 77th and 84th minutes against Chelsea, the 89th minute against Brentford, the 97th minute against Luton.
They are finding different routes to victory even when the path to them is littered with obstacles. Saturday represents the acid test of their development, particularly coming so soon after the loss at Villa.
Win at Anfield against a Liverpool team a point and a place below them in the table and who have lost just once in their last 50 league matches at home, and Arsenal’s readiness to win the title will no longer be questioned.